Analyzing the 2018 MLB Draft Class:
Who has Been the Best HS Pitcher Drafted?
Introduction
After completion of their first full season of pro ball, we can begin to gauge on which pitchers are performing at a high level. We can also start to see which pitchers are providing high value to their team. Either by outperforming their draft slot or underperforming concerning their draft slot. This can be quickly done through a combination of the use of the “eye-test” and statistical evaluation. Specific statistics hold higher value in measuring the real performance of a pitcher than others and give a more accurate assessment on assessing the pitcher’s current results and projected results. With the modern era of MLB being head-over-heels with analytics and player development, much more pressure is being put on prospects to produce results. Results that either show early success or results that show that player development can take over, and take the player to the next level. With that stated, I wanted to answer the following question. Which high school pitcher, amongst the first 15 selected, in the 2018 MLB draft, has performed the best?
*This sample was chosen from the first 15 high school pitchers selected in a draft who signed with a team and have pitched at LEAST 40 innings. This being the case, as many of the first 15 selected have already had Tommy John surgery. I wanted to see which players were providing the most value to their organization. Additionally, I wanted to provide my evaluations on the players and give my evaluator take on which pitchers I think will ultimately experience the most success in the big leagues. The following pitchers selected within the first 15 high school pitchers have had TJ surgery and hadn’t pitched 40 innings: Mason Denaburg (WAS), Lenny Torres (CLE), Owen White (TEX), and Mason Englert (TEX).
Table Background: An analysis of the table would show how well a pitcher is at striking hitters out, throwing strikes, and limiting runs, which are three vital components for a pitcher to control. The modern-day game of MLB preaches strikeout rates, limiting HRs, and filling up the strike zone. These are the driving traits in which pitches are evaluated and need to be assessed. With high school pitchers being younger than college pitchers when entering pro ball, they are not expected to perform at a higher level. As when they are coming into pro ball, they take longer to develop. Thus, HS pitches are supposed to show projection early on. Hence, why it is inaccurate to compare a highschooler’s first season of pro ball vs. a college pitcher’s first season of pro ball. The following is an accumulation of each pitcher’s career stats so far in the minor leagues.
- All numbers were either calculated or gathered from Baseball Reference of Fangraphs. FIP was calculated with a cFIP of 3.216 in “R”.
- The table descends in order from order of selection with Weathers being the first.
Why the Statistics Were Selected:
IP: Measures volume and sample size of accumulated statistics.
Innings Pitched
K/9: Ability to strikeout hitters.
Strikeouts per 9 innings
BB/9: Ability to command the zone and throw strikes.
Walks per 9 innings
K/BB: How many hitters are they expected to strikeout for every free base they allow.
Strikeout to walk ratio
K%: How often do hitters strike out against the pitcher and his stuff.
Strikeout percentage
FIP: Pitcher’s three true outcomes into an earned run average-like number
Fielding Independent Pitching
ERA: Shows an average of how many runs are allowed when they take the mound.
Earned Run Average
HR/9: Ability to keep the ball in the ballpark in the launch angle area.
Home Runs allowed per 9 innings
GB%: Ability to keep the ball on the ground and generate double plays
Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
BABIP: A hitter’s ability to get a hit for when they put the ball in play off the pitcher.
Batting Average on Balls In Play
Analysis
Strikeouts: The K/9 v.s BB/9 graph can explicitly show which pitchers are power pitchers, strike-throwers, and command issue pitchers. This is due to the relationship between K/9 and BB/9. The association is a reference to assist in projecting pitchers for their prospective roles at the major league level (e.g., front line starter, back end starter, power reliever, swingman, etc.). Just by evaluating the pitchers strictly based off of K/9 and BB/9, we can begin to place pitchers into specific niches and roles. Sidenote: high school pitches are typically drafted as starters, so evaluations will be made on starter niche types unless stated otherwise. Front of the rotation pitchers TEND to have double-digit strikeout rates, and Grayson Rodriguez, Ethan Hankins, Simeon Woods-Richardson, and Drew Rom are the only ones to accomplish such so far. Rodriguez has, by far, been the top punchout artist amongst the high school pitchers, and he has shown a real frontline starter ability to generate strikeouts. Hankins and Woods-Richardson have elite K/BB rates and have displayed that they can throw strikes at a high level. Especially Woods-Richardson, who is striking out 5x the amount of hitters he walks. This is a good sign for Hankins as out of the draft, he was labeled as someone who had power stuff but was suspect in his ability to throw in the strike zone consistently. Rom seemingly has come out of nowhere to show frontline starter ability after having many high school pitchers selected before him. With his walk rate below three and strikeout rate above 10, he is showing promise to be a #2 starter in the big leagues. I feel as if Rodriguez will be the ace of Baltimore’s rotation. While Hankins is the only other pitcher of the three, who can realistically produce results at a #1 starter rate. While Rom and Woods-Richardson are showing more #2 starter level production, still above-average. On the next tier, Ryan Weathers, Adam Kloffenstein, and Matt Liberatore are projecting as 2–3 starters from their K/9 and BB/9. All of their K rates are sub 9, showing that they generate strikeouts. However, their early walk rates are dictating their upside and place in a rotation. Weathers has demonstrated the most complete K/BB ability of the three, as he has a meager walk rate at 1.73. He is thus showing the talent that made him the first high school pitcher selected. Weathers, in particular, does not possess the power to make him a #1 starter. But his control allows him to be a capable #2 starter in a rotation as long as he fills up the strike zone and avoids barrels. Kloffenstein and Liberatore have performed almost identically and have both shown more power pitching ability. Kloffenstein, in particular, has a high repertoire of pitches and is more than capable of being a legit 2–3 starter for Toronto. He also has the ability to develop more strikeouts further as he ascends. Liberatore has comfortably shown that he can be a #2 starter as his strikeout rate and walk rate are advanced for his age, resembling that of an above-average big league pitcher. The remaining pitchers all have a mixed bag of results with various combinations of walk rates and strikeout rates.
However, these are high school pitchers, so projection is fundamental to evaluating them. So, to highlight specific rates, Taj Bradley has shown that he has an ability to strikeout hitters with a K/9 of 9.85. For Bradley, he has shown early control problems, as evidenced by his 3.77 BB/9. These are encouraging peripherals as he will enter his age 19 season with strikeout stuff. Further development could peg Bradley as someone to watch for, possibly in the light of a future #3 starter. Alexuan Vega, not even drafted within the top 15 high school pitchers, has showcased the ability to fill up the strike zone with a minuscule 1.14 BB/9. Vega’s K/BB is extraordinarily low at 7.83 K/BB because of his ability to throw strikes.
All in all, Vega is showing he can perform the basic necessity of a big-league starter, throw strikes. Vega gives off the impression that he can be a possible 3/4 starter from his K/9 and BB/9. The rest of the pack of pitchers screams raw, and they require time and development. Jayson Schroeder, former 2nd round pick, has strikeout stuff, but insane control problems as he is more likely to walk a hitter then strike them out as shown by his paltry 0.93 K/BB. At the same time, he could be pegged as a breakout prospect as his combination of stuff and age allow him time to learn how to harness his pitches. Cole Winn hasn’t been able to throw strikes consistently, but he is still capable of reaching a #3 type ceiling. Lyon Richardson profiles as a backend starter from his lower K/9 and low BB/9. Justin Jarvis is someone who can be a 4–5 starter pending better command. Braxton Ashcraft is still looking for his footing in pro ball but still has a #3 starter ceiling with a realistic 4–5 spot based on his early performance. Lastly, Yeancarlos Lleras profiles as a relief pitcher but has yet to show enough performance to warrant consideration into a prospective big-league role. Llears has not demonstrated an ability to strike hitters out or throw strikes making his future all dependent on how the young pitcher develops. In conclusion, high school pitchers are expected to have control issues early in pro ball but, we can begin to separate those who are capable of top of the rotation roles and those who need to further develop.
Run Prevention: More goes into evaluating the pitcher’s success besides K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and K%. FIP is a very accurate portrayal of a player’s run prevention ability, and this is the defining statistic that separates aces from the pack. The ability to prevent runs will further distinguish what kind of starting pitching role each pitcher can grow into. Grayson Rodriguez has indeed been accurate in his run prevention ability as his ERA and FIP are almost identical and the lowest on the graph. This supports the idea that between Rodriguez’s above-average K/9, BB/9, and run prevention ability that he can be the true ace of Baltimore’s pitching staff. Same goes with Drew Rom as Rom proves that he isn’t a one-dimensional pitcher. He is, therefore, supporting that he is truly capable of being a 2–3 starter even though he was drafted later. In the case of Simeon Woods-Richardson, this graph shows that his ERA doesn’t accurately depict his ability to limit runs as his FIP is over a run lower than his ERA. Showing that Woods-Richardson is likely on track to be an above-average big leaguer with his low FIP and high K/BB. The graph also shows that in theory, Matt Liberatore, Ethan Hankins, Adam Kloffenstein, and Justin Jarvis all have somewhat deceiving ERAs as their career ERA is lower than FIP. There is little difference between the ERA and FIP of Liberatore, Hankins, and Jarvis, but with Kloffenstein, his run prevention value is better displayed through his FIP. It can be assumed that because all of their ERAs are lower than their FIPs, each pitcher has pitched with varying degrees of luck to get an ERA smaller than a FIP. Another highlight of the data is that Cole Winn has proven to be below average in his run prevention ability with a sub 4 FIP and ERA.
Additionally, Alexuan Vega and Yeancarlos Lleras have performed better than their ERAs suggest but still have allowed many runs in their young careers. I expect Vega to turn this around with his strike-throwing ability as he will learn to throw quality strikes moving forward.
Percentiles: I chose to display each player’s overall performance through percentiles concerning one another’s performance. The percentiles also show which teams have drawn the most value from their players and selections. Many arguments can be made on players’ value and ability through the display of percentiles.
For starters, Drew Rom has outperformed his draft slot and given the Orioles incredible value later with over ten high school pitchers selected over Rom. Thus, making Rom the top steal of the draft (so far) in terms of relative performance to the sample. Grayson Rodriguez has seemingly lived up to his billing and has somehow outperformed his draft slot early on. His return to date suggests that Rodriguez will indeed be a dominant pitcher in the AL East by the time he reaches the big leagues. Ryan Weathers has not pitched well enough to warrant being the first high school pitcher drafted. Overall, there is a correlation with high school pitchers selected towards the top of the draft performing at a higher level. Simeon Woods-Richardson has been very impressive to date and will likely cause Mets fans to envy his move to Toronto. Overall, I feel as, in the case of high school pitchers, the percentile graph allows MLB officials to identify which high school pitchers have the most upside. It’s known that high school pitchers take longer to develop. So, encouraging signs early on in their careers allow for MLB teams to mold and develop pitchers at a higher rate. Based on the graph, Taj Bradley, Adam Kloffenstein, Ethan Hankins, and Matt Liberatore all are flashing early upside in their young careers and project as “breakout” prospects in the coming years. Not only are they all flashing upside early on, but they are also showing their relative floor is “safe.” Meaning that if they continue on their trajectory and develop, they can all be viable big league pitchers.
Value: The above table was designed to show how the pitchers have sized up to one another early on. The table also highlights which pitchers have provided the most value from their draft slot and which ones have underperformed. Drew Rom has provided the most value and has by far outperformed his draft spot for high school pitchers. Cole Winn and Ryan Weathers have not performed within the top three high school pitchers even though Weathers has pitched above average in the pitching class. Grayson Rodriguez has pitched like he should have been the first high school pitcher selected because of his run prevention and strike-throwing ability. Early on, the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles are both looking like they came away with steals from the draft. As Simeon Woods-Richardson, Adam Kloffenstein, Rodriguez, and Rom have all been exceptional and are looking like future stalwarts in their rotations.
Conclusion
The above displays of data help in answering the question of “Who has been the best HS pitcher drafted?”.The analysis and tables accurately show the pitchers true performance and exclude all bias. In reference for future projections, it would be beneficial to find the above MILB numbers from current MLB pitchers and compare them to a pitching prospect to find trends in types of pitchers and know what kind of pitcher a team is getting. Lastly, it can be stated that raw data and sometimes even the most basic statistics display the reality of a pitcher’s ability in the best way possible.
